Strait of Hormuz Oil Risk Pushes Brent Toward 87 Again
Brent crude near 87 is not a mystery. The Strait of Hormuz is again doing what narrow sea lanes do when politics turns ugly: it converts military risk into an energy price.
Iran
Oil Slides as Iran Talks Move Toward Reopening Hormuz
Crude prices slipped over the weekend after the US president said Washington would not rush into a deal with Iran, while also signaling that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was largely negotiated. The market read both lines as the same signal. Traders are pricing a path back to something closer to normal tanker flow, even if the political theater takes another two or three weeks to settle.
Europe Carbon Fraud, Iran Fertilizer Squeeze, AI Bond Boom
Energy markets ran on three storylines today. A long running scandal over Chinese carbon credits sold into Europe got a new chapter. The Iran war kept squeezing oil, gas, and now sulphur. And the AI buildout kept pulling capital into long dated bonds. Each thread has different drivers but they share one feature: rules and prices that worked last cycle are starting to fail.